80% of Ukrainian migrants will return home after the war

07.07.2025

Ruslan Shostak, President of TERWIN

I want to continue the conversation about the people who left Ukraine — the migrants. I strongly disagree with the rhetoric of some politicians and bloggers claiming that most migrants will remain abroad after the war ends. I am convinced that 80% of those who left will return. Some people — including military personnel — may leave after the war to reunite with their families, but one way or another, the majority will come home within the next 3–5 years.

If you’re an emigrant — you’re a foreigner. Always and forever to those who were born and raised in their own country. Even if you are protected by law, have documents, or even a passport — your rights are temporary. We see this now in the case of Azerbaijanis in Russia, where people are being expelled and stripped of their citizenship. Any country in the world can suddenly consider you “a threat” and take your rights away.

Today we see growing intolerance toward migrants in Europe and the U.S., where the political trend is shifting further to the right. And this is not some abstract idea — it’s a reality that will shape migration policies for years to come. Look at Poland — it has elected a right-wing president. Hungary, Austria, Italy, Sweden, France, Germany — they either already have or are moving toward right-wing conservative governments. Hungary, Romania, Slovakia — their stance is clear. The U.S. is increasingly hostile toward migrants. This means that at some point, Poland, for example, might decide that Ukrainian migrants are to blame for (possibly) its economic decline — and expel them all, regardless of their situations. We're already seeing signs of this. “Too many of them came” is something being heard more and more across different countries.

People, including veterans, who moved abroad after the war won’t be able to accept the status of guest workers instead of being war heroes in Ukraine. And they’ll come back. Pensioners will see their benefits cut — they’ll come back. Working-age Ukrainians will return because there will be more opportunities and higher wages in Ukraine after the war. We're already feeling this trend now.

Ultimately, history teaches us that it’s better to build your own country than to be the fifth wheel in someone else’s — where you’re not a full-fledged citizen, but an add-on. And where you live, you're constantly uncertain. Remember the 1930s and the persecution of Jews — the ghettos in the heart of Europe. Back then, Jews were blamed for Europe’s problems. Today, it’s Mexicans in America. Tomorrow, Ukrainians could just as easily be blamed for the issues in the country they’re living in.

Living abroad means being in constant danger and hoping that nothing goes wrong. But that’s not the same as truly living — breathing freely and feeling like you’re part of rebuilding and growing your own country. Where you will always be safe — because you're home.