The Arctic as the 51st state of the USA. Why is the peace agreement between Ukraine and the Russian Federation and the Arctic issue one package for Donald Trump? Reflections by Ruslan Shostak from WEF

24.01.2026

Here is the English translation of Ruslan Shostak’s analytical op-ed following the World Economic Forum 2026, capturing its sharp geopolitical tone and strategic terminology:

Who Will Control the White Continent and What Role Does Ukraine Play?

Ruslan Shostak, President of the TERWIN Corporation, founder and co-owner of EVA and VARUS, attended the World Economic Forum 2026 and drew his own conclusions from the debates that unfolded in Davos.

At this year's World Economic Forum in Davos, the focus of nearly all political and economic platforms was gripped by the issue of Greenland. At first glance, it might have seemed that the topic of Ukraine had receded into the background. However, this is not the case.

A Unified Negotiation Package

A year ago, I wrote about U.S. President Donald Trump's close attention to Greenland. Even then, it was obvious: U.S. interests run much deeper than simple territorial expansion or national security. It is about gaining control over Arctic resources, establishing strategic dominance around the North Pole, and systematically weakening Russia and China in the coming decades.

Back then, it looked like a pragmatic economic calculation. Today, it is evident that this scenario has begun to unfold. I was not mistaken.

The narratives that filled this year’s WEF, as well as Trump's public rhetoric in recent months, have confirmed this. For the U.S. President, a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia and the Arctic question are a unified negotiation package. In this logic, peace in Ukraine is not an isolated humanitarian gesture, but one element of a broader deal regarding the redistribution of global influence in the Arctic.

What the Arctic Truly Is

The Arctic is one of the most resource-rich regions on the planet, yet it remains largely untapped. According to various estimates, it holds up to a third of the world’s natural gas reserves, significant volumes of oil, as well as the largest deposits of rare earth and strategic metals—critical for the defense industry, green energy, and high technology.

Furthermore, the Arctic encompasses the Northern Sea Route, a future global logistical artery capable of cutting the transit route between Europe and Asia nearly in half, radically reshaping global trade.

Currently, only five countries hold formal rights to the Arctic: the United States, Russia, Canada, Norway, and Denmark.

Why the Arctic Question Has Surfaced Right Now

Trump thinks in large-scale operations and aspires to enter history as the president who effectively "brought" America a new state—resources worth hundreds of trillions of dollars. The last time the U.S. expanded was in 1959, when Hawaii joined the nation under President Eisenhower. Nearly 70 years later, Trump wants to repeat this step, albeit in a new geopolitical format.

In this logic, Ukraine becomes a tool capable of bringing him closer to his global objective, while a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine becomes a bargaining chip with Russian leader Vladimir Putin for Arctic influence and the redistribution of control over northern territories in favor of the United States.

This is precisely why the Arctic theme is increasingly moving to the forefront of public discourse.

Greenland is merely a fraction of Trump’s "Arctic" plan. The ultimate goal is complete control over the Arctic. I am convinced that the U.S. will be able to resolve the Greenland issue through diplomacy. It is only a matter of time.

Next come Canada and Norway. Their alignment with U.S. interests is also a matter of time and of those "convincing arguments" that Trump is so adept at finding.

Thus, a "51st state" de facto emerges for the U.S. And this is being realized by Donald Trump—a president who strives to go down in history as a "president of peace."

The Capability to Develop the Arctic

If we set aside questions of ethics and democratic principles, the United States is currently the only nation with the actual capability to fully develop and comprehensively extract the resources of the Arctic. No other state possesses the capacity to invest in this region to the required extent, provide the necessary technology, manage the logistics, ensure security, and sustain long-term project scaling for decades to come.

What control over the Arctic delivers to America:

• Control over the pivotal resource region of the 21st century;

• The formation of a new economic frontier with a potential worth hundreds of trillions of dollars;

• A strategic advantage over China and the ultimate weakening of Russia as a global player.

This is exactly what the key economic and political events of recent months have been about. This is what Davos was about, in a broader sense.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has not disappeared from the agenda, nor has it yielded its place to Greenland. On the contrary, it has become part of a global discussion about peace as an instrument in a grand geopolitical deal.

In the near future, we will witness rising tensions surrounding Arctic ambitions in Norway and Canada—which will further fuel interest in the region. After the Arctic, it will be Africa’s turn. America will return there, and China, which has been strengthening its foothold on the continent for a long time, will have to face severe pressure.

Everything that is happening is, one way or another, directed against China. Possessing even undeveloped deposits negates China's advantage over the U.S.: regardless of extraction costs, the strategic resource remains in the hands of whoever controls the territory.