Let’s return to the headlines and claims from bloggers: “There will be no one left to work in Ukraine after the war,” “Who will rebuild the country?” “A demographic catastrophe is inevitable,” “A third of the working-age population won’t be enough to save Ukraine from decline and extinction.” Everything sounds terrible.

But is it really so?

Recently, I wrote about where Ukrainians went abroad and what that means for the country’s future. Today, I want to continue this conversation — focusing on Ukraine’s working-age population. To support HR experts who say there’s a labor shortage — and explain why this happened and what to do about it.

Before the full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine had about 17.3 million working-age citizens.

Today, the situation looks different:

• About 1 million Ukrainians are officially serving at the front. Before the war, the Ukrainian army had around 250,000 people.

• Another 1.5 million are employed in defense industries, healthcare, volunteer efforts, and other critical sectors. The defense sector has multiplied, the healthcare system has expanded, and the number of volunteer organizations has grown hundreds of times over.

• Around 1 million men are avoiding mobilization and remain unemployed.

• Roughly 1.3 million working-age people — mostly women aged 18 to 55 — have gone abroad.

In total, about 4.8 million people have exited the civilian labor market. That’s a significant number — but should we panic?

Most of these people will eventually return to work after the war ends. Yet even now, we can see that the labor shortage has become one of the main driving forces of economic transformation — particularly the unprecedented rise in wages.

For comparison:

• In 2019, the average salary in Ukraine was $385.

• In 2025, it reached $542.

That’s roughly a twofold increase in five years. The reasons are clear: a shortage of labor, growing demand for skilled workers, inflationary pressure, and a smaller civilian workforce — along with the legalization of wages in the military and defense sectors.

Now comes the key question:

What’s better — living in a large country with $500 salaries, or in a smaller one with $2,000 salaries?

The answer is obvious. Quantity doesn’t always equal quality. The best examples come from developed and fast-growing nations:

• Luxembourg: 660,000 people, average salary €5,000–6,000 — the financial center of Europe.

• UAE: 10 million people, average salary €6,000–7,000 — a post-oil economy with advanced tech sectors.

• Singapore: 5.6 million people, average salary €4,000–5,000 — Asia’s logistics and technology hub.

There are many such examples. What matters most is the structure and direction of the economy, not its population size.

If Ukraine becomes a high-tech, export-oriented country with a strong industrial base, the question won’t be how many people we have — but how well they live.

Economic growth is the key factor in raising incomes. And Ukraine has everything it needs to significantly improve living standards by 2030.

It might seem that the economy and GDP can’t grow without people — but that’s not true. Ukraine’s economy is one of the least efficient in terms of labor productivity. Ukraine produces about $21,000 per worker per year, while the U.S. produces $120,000 — meaning one American worker generates about five times more output. Thanks to modern technologies, proper labor organization, and automation.

For 30 years, Ukraine has lacked long-term, low-cost financing. If such funds become available, we could modernize outdated industries and transform the economy within 10–15 years.

Another key factor is rapid workforce reskilling. The country needs a system for quickly retraining people for more in-demand professions. Only then will we achieve meaningful economic growth — regardless of population size.

Read the full article on NV.