Based on the recent debates between Biden and Trump, Trump's chances of winning the presidential election appear significant. The day before, 16 Nobel laureates in economics, including Joseph Stiglitz and Robert Shiller, issued a joint statement. They warn that a Trump victory would lead to high inflation, labor market problems, and other issues in the U.S. However, if Biden wins, these consequences will not occur.

The Nobel laureates highlight inflation, which has already reached record levels in the U.S. over the past two years. Although the Ukrainian context is present in the election rhetoric, it is not a primary concern for Americans. Of course, Trump's statements about ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours attract interest, but they are mainly aimed at his voters, not the global community.

Without claiming expertise in American politics, I have some understanding of business. Ending the war in 24 hours essentially means recognizing Russia's victory and consolidating its occupied territories, which seems unrealistic. Here are a few arguments:

Geopolitics: The primary enemy of the U.S. is China, and Ukraine's defeat could trigger events leading to the EU's collapse and strengthening Russia's positions, weakening America in favor of China. Some European countries might see strength in Russia and seek it as an ally, leading to the EU's disintegration and loss of U.S. support. In the future, the European center could shift from Brussels to Moscow. This could happen in 5-10 years, and the current authorities will feel the consequences of their decisions. Losing the support of the European Union and the Union itself is not beneficial for the U.S.

Business Interests: The main sponsors of the U.S. Republican Party are big businesses, particularly in defense, energy, finance, and mining sectors. Some sectors include:

Energy: Sanctions against Russia have opened new opportunities for American companies. In 2023, the U.S. became the largest supplier of oil and gas to European countries. In the next 10-15 years, American companies will earn trillions of dollars in new markets.

Defense: The world is actively rearming. The war in Ukraine has shown the need for new developments. In the next 10 years, the world will spend about $10 trillion on rearmament, with the U.S. and Europe playing key roles. In 2023, sales of American military equipment to foreign governments increased by 16%, reaching a record $238 billion. Trump is likely to continue this trend if he wins.

Nuclear Energy: Russia occupies a third of the global nuclear energy market, but sanctions create new opportunities for the U.S. and its partners. The renewed interest in nuclear energy opens new export opportunities for America.

Space Services Market: Sanctions against Russia have reduced cooperation with "Roscosmos." NASA is developing new rocket modifications without Russian engines. This could radically change the space services market, where Russia held 3rd place. Experts predict that Russia will drop to 7th place or disappear from this market altogether.

Campaign Propaganda: Trump's current rhetoric is aimed at his electorate in the U.S. His statements serve to attract voters. How he will behave if he returns to the White House will be seen in time. However, it can be said that President Trump will primarily be the President of the U.S., and only then Donald Trump. In the U.S., there are mature elites and a powerful political apparatus that make a sharp change in political course impossible, even if the president has made numerous promises. Trump, as a leader, seeks to leave his mark in American history as a leader who brought the American dream closer. And this is much more valuable to Trump than a few more billion dollars in his pocket.