War, taxes, and state support: what awaits Ukrainian business in 2025

29.05.2025

Ruslan Shostak, President of TERWIN

The main challenge for businesses in 2025 remains unchanged: the war. If it doesn’t end or at least freeze, the same problems will persist—security, money, people. If some form of stability emerges, investors will return.

A new challenge for businesses may arise—tax increases in 2026, as announced in line with IMF recommendations to address the budget deficit. That wouldn't be a significant issue if everyone in the country adhered to the rules. But with about 50% of the market operating in the shadows and depriving the state of ₴1 trillion annually, we can’t talk about a fair economy.

Officials are afraid of losing their "extra privileges" in the form of Rolls-Royces, Porsches, and thousands of square meters of real estate funded by shadow schemes in the Ukrainian economy. And it's the "white" (legal) business that ends up footing the bill for their comfort.

“Investment Nanny” and State Support

We are working with the state on the WINHUB project. Their interest is clear—it’s about potential investments of $700 million. There aren’t many such projects in Ukraine.

The state assists with paperwork and communication with investors. No, they’re not showering us with gold, but their attitude is genuinely good.

There have been many potential investors who said, “We’ll join after the war.”

Ukrainian and international banks are ready to open credit lines. The conditions are standard, so not particularly attractive. But that’s the reality: war, high risks. Everyone — banks and we — takes that into account.

There are foreign currency loans on offer at 5–7% interest. Loans in hryvnia are more expensive, though safer. But these are poor conditions for large-scale investment projects.