A problem that shouldn’t be demonized.

Ukrainian bloggers, think tanks, and economists sound the alarm: “The country is running out of people, we’ve lost nearly half the nation because of the war. There’s no one left to work.” Of course, the issue of population outflow cannot be ignored — but let’s not dramatize it. Let’s look at the numbers before making sweeping claims.

I’d like to dispel a few myths on this topic. As a retailer, I clearly see both the outflow and the inflow of people — and I can say with confidence: things aren’t as bad as they seem.

I expect a lot of criticism, because my calculations differ from the claims of most bloggers, HR professionals, and labor market analysts. And that’s understandable — framing the issue as a massive population drain makes it much easier to explain workforce shortages.
But allow me to offer another perspective.

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Those Who Left

Let’s go step by step.

Before the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s population was 38 million (excluding Crimea and the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions).
Over the past three years, Russia has occupied new territories with a combined population of no more than 1 million, including those who fled to Ukraine or Europe.
That gives us 38 million – 1 million = 37 million.

Now let’s calculate further.

How many Ukrainians left the country?
According to UNHCR (as of April 17, 2025), there are 6.3 million Ukrainian refugees registered in Europe and another 560,000 outside Europe. In total, 6.9 million Ukrainians have received refugee status or another form of protection worldwide.

In addition, according to the Center for Economic Strategy (as of November 2024):
43 million border crossings were recorded since the start of the war, and 39.3 million people returned.
That’s a difference of 3.7 million who remain abroad.
So the number of people who actually left is not as high as it may seem.
And according to the UN, 6.9 million Ukrainians officially have refugee status.

However, there are two major problems with this statistic:

1. The official data includes Ukrainians who were already labor migrants before the invasion. Many of them applied for refugee status simply to obtain legal documents, social benefits, or better jobs. There were many such people — around 3 million Ukrainians permanently lived and worked abroad before the war.
   When the opportunity arose, they registered as refugees.
   These people are counted in official migration data.
   Simple math: 6.9 million – 3 million = 3.9 million people who left Ukraine because of the war.

Now let’s refine that further.

2. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians received refugee status and aid but later returned to Ukraine or moved to another country, which distorts the numbers significantly.
   For example, in Poland, 1.8 million Ukrainians hold refugee status, but only 960,000 live there permanently.
   In Czechia, it’s 615,000 vs. 354,000.
   Many live abroad but frequently travel home.

From this, it follows that far fewer Ukrainians actually live abroad than initially left.
Most of them are women with children, many of whom will likely return after the war ends.

Thus, from 3.9 million emigrants, we can subtract about 2 million who live between two countries.
That leaves 1.9 million people who have truly settled abroad.

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The Final Tally

38 million (pre-war population)
– 1 million (occupied territories)
– 1.9 million (permanent refugees abroad)
= 35.1 million people currently living in Ukraine, including those who periodically travel abroad and are likely to return home after the war.

Read the full article on NV.